• Thu. Apr 18th, 2024

    How Ukraine War Will End

    The war in eastern Ukraine will likely continue to rage for years, if not decades to come. It is very difficult to see an end coming soon, unless there is a major power shift or significant diplomatic breakthrough.

    Many people seem to think that once Russia officially annexes Crimea, then the conflict ends. This assumption was made after the fall of the Soviet Union when many believed that Georgia would be next.

    This belief is misguided. Even though Crimea is now part of the Russian Federation, this does not necessarily mean an immediate ceasefire.

    Crimea still needs to be governed by Ukrainian law and it must be returned to Ukraine at some point in the future. In fact, such an event could spark another round of violence as armed separatists fight against Moscow’s forces and government troops again try to take control of the region.

    Furthermore, even after all of these conditions are met, Ukraine will probably not grant full recognition to Crimea as a legitimate province within its borders. Only recently did they recognize East Galicia and Sudakty as official provinces!

    It is also important to note that while most countries view Crimea as being illegally annexed by Russia, no country has ever recognized the self-proclaimed republics in Donbass (Donetsk and Luhansk) as independent states either.

    These territories have never been internationally accepted as sovereign entities and their continued existence beyond the current status quo really cannot be guaranteed.

    There is no clear winner in this conflict

    This article will discuss how war can end between Russia and Ukraine, as well as why it is so difficult to achieve peace in such situations. It will also look at some potential scenarios for what could happen next.

    First, you should know that there is currently not one clearly defined side in this conflict. Both countries have accused each other of being the cause of tensions and conflicts, making an agreement very hard to come by.

    Russia has gained little from its involvement

    As mentioned before, just because something is motivated by selfishness does not make it bad. In fact, it can be quite the opposite. If someone is striving to achieve their own goals, they are probably trying hard enough.

    In this case, Russia has gone beyond merely seeking to influence events in Ukraine for its own benefit. It now actively seeks to destroy the country altogether. This is very poor motivation.

    By investing so much time, money, and energy into weakening Ukrainian institutions, Moscow is leaving itself vulnerable when things do not go well. When there’s no longer anyone around to keep the peace, chaos usually follows.

    This could backfire even more than people think. After all, why would anybody want to enter an unstable situation? Even if most Ukrainians were pro-Russian, many wouldn’t want to live under Russian rule.

    On top of that, a strong Ukraine is a threat to any number of countries in Europe and North America that feel insecure about their national security. A few years ago such fears seemed exaggerated, but today they seem justified.

    Ukrainian forces are gaining ground and control more of the country

    This week, there was some good news for pro-Western military factions in Ukraine! They won an important battle against Russian-backed separatists in the east of the country.

    On Tuesday, October 21st, Ukrainian troops retook the town of Novoselovyansk, which had been held by separatist rebels since August 2016. The area around the town is now back under government control.

    This isn’t just any old victory either – it happened during what many consider to be the war’s deadliest period so far. Over 2,500 people have died as a direct result of this conflict, with both sides guilty of atrocities.

    But even though casualties remain high, there has been progress towards resolving the crisis. And that can only benefit everyone involved in the long term.

    Finding ways to reduce tensions and promoting peaceful coexistence are key goals of peacemakers. So if we take a look at how things stand right now, it seems like we’re moving in the right direction.

    Putin loses face when he refuses to negotiate with Trump

    As we know, Russia has been supporting separatists in eastern Ukraine for over five years now. They use military force, propaganda, money, and diplomacy to fuel this conflict.

    By refusing to talk to the West about their involvement in the Ukrainian crisis, they make themselves look weaker. It is impossible to argue that investing heavily into an armed struggle makes you strong. In fact, it only creates more problems down the line.

    If there’s one thing we have learned from recent events, it’s that when someone makes a threat, they must be ready to back up those words with actions. This way, people will take them seriously and avoid making similar threats in future.

    For instance, after Hitler made several aggressive statements during World War II, Britain and France decided to defend themselves by invading Germany. By creating a pre-emptive strike, they put pressure on Adolf to end the war sooner rather than later.

    He didn’t like being confronted with such tough questions, so he agreed to a truce and signed the Treaty of Peace at Reims. Many consider this to be his downfall because it left him without any options. He could either accept the terms and save some face, or refuse and risk everything.

    We can see how choosing the second option was not a good idea. Now that Brexit and Donald Trump’s election as US president are happening, many believe that a nuclear WWIII is imminent.

    Peace negotiations between all parties would be difficult, if possible at all

    A peaceful resolution to this conflict seems increasingly unlikely as time goes by. Both sides have invested too much in war to back down now with no clear victory condition.

    For Russia, its primary goal is for European countries to accept Moscow’s annexation of Crimea and reduced influence in eastern Ukraine as permanent facts on the ground. It wants to keep the Western-oriented Ukrainian government from collapsing and establishing closer ties with the West.

    Ukrainian President Petro Poroshenko has little incentive to negotiate either. He needs international backing for his country’s fight against Russian separatists, so he can’t afford to give up territory or agree to any lasting concessions like an amnesty that would likely leave more hardline rebels untouched.

    Neither side appears willing to make major compromises unless it feels absolutely certain it will win the next round of fighting.

    A long, drawn-out conflict that continues to escalate

    The situation in Eastern Europe is changing rapidly as we speak, with lots of fluctuating priorities and agendas. It seems like every few days there’s a new development or escalation of some kind. This is particularly true for those who are paying attention to international news these past couple months.

    It’s easy to get distracted by all the different conflicts going on around us, but one thing has remained constant throughout almost every stage of this Ukrainian war — Russia will not stop trying to win it.

    They won’t give up the hope of taking over more territory, they won’t agree to ceasefire terms, and they sure as hell don’t want America to push them out of control anymore.

    That last part may be why US President Donald Trump decided to unilaterally impose sanctions against Russian officials earlier this month.

    One side wins big, one side loses big

    There are only two possible outcomes to this conflict. Either Russia retreats or collapses. They cannot win!

    If they retreat then Germany will take back Crimea. If they collapse then there is no longer an enemy for the West to go fight against in Europe. The war ends here.

    Retreating from territory that has been seized through invasion is never easy. It takes time, effort and money which often get spent more quickly once wars start.

    This is why it is so hard to predict how long it will last – even if you have all the clues. Sometimes a quick withdrawal happens at the very end when everything seems lost.

    But this does not happen often and most experts agree that it will be quite some time before we see a Russian exit.

    They will try to hold onto as much land and influence as they can but they will also run out of both resources and patience really fast.

    So who will win? We could say that winner-takes-all events always build up lots of pressure and energy in the world, helping them to succeed. This applies particularly well to military conflicts.

    It is like a snowball effect where each passing moment adds more momentum and force behind whatever action people choose to take next. In other words, momentum works in favour of whoever makes the first move.

    That said, timing is everything. You need to wait until just the right moment to make your move.

    Neither party gains much

    There are only two possible outcomes to this conflict, and neither is favorable for anyone involved. Either both sides fight to exhaustion with no winner or they work together in an uneasy truce.

    Both Ukrainian government forces and Russia-backed separatists have been conducting frequent offensives against each other since April, so it seems that nothing is changing. This can’t go on indefinitely without one side giving up and quitting.

    A ceasefire has lasted several months now, but there was never really one. Both sides agree to stop shooting for a few days at a time before resuming their battle to win or lose.

    If you think about it, even during these lulls there is always something going on. Whether it be artillery fire or combat maneuvers, there is constant activity somewhere on the battlefield.

    This doesn’t change even when there is supposedly peace. At the very least, people get tired of staying awake all night while everyone else sleeps. It’s hard to focus on anything besides your own sleep and food reserves when you’re spending every waking moment worrying about war.

    No matter who you’re fighting or what you’ve done to them, someone will probably remember how you made them feel and use that as ammunition in their campaign to defeat you. If you win, people may forgive you for what you did, but if you don’t – well, you already know how that story ends.

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